Notes
Slide Show
Outline
1
Caught Red-Handed
  • MoveOn.org Political Action’s early advertising program
2
Picking the Districts
  • Goal: “Broaden the battlefield”
  • Polled before the program with GQR to identify districts where support was soft.
  • “Second-tier” districts – Nancy Johnson (CT), Deborah Pryce (OH), Thelma Drake (VA), Chris Chocola (IN)



3
Developing Creative
  • Our members’ concerns
  • Shape the critique with polling data.
  • Let the creative people do their work.
  • Web-test it.
  • Market-test it.


4
Traits of effective ads
  • Bold visual imagery and visual metaphor – so voters recall them.
  • Work with the “vacuum cleaner” test.
  • Connect with real concerns.
  • Testing and polling as a filter, not as a surrogate creative team.
  • Provoke a fight (and have people in-district ready to fight it.)


5
Using the corruption frame.
  • Connect corruption in Washington to peoples’ real concerns.
  • Energy, health care, defense contractors especially salient.
  • Start with the issues, move to corruption.
6
The ads
7
The buy
  • $1,210,692 total.
  • Four flights of 10 days, 600-700 GRPs each.
  • Prescription drugs, then energy, then defense contractors (repeated energy two times)
  • Most voters saw the ads about 10 times each flight.
8
Shift in the vote
9
And in the control districts . . . Nothing.
  • GQR: “We examined the results of the adverting campaign in comparison to a control market where no advertising was run during the same period. In Iowa’s 4th congressional district, we saw support for the Republican Tom Latham actually increase slightly and assessment of his job approval improve. His share of the vote remained essentially unchanged (56 percent), as did his overall image.”
10
Control districts
11
Shift in traits
  • In IN-2, Republican Chris Chocola saw his negative ratings increase from 36 to 47 percent negative. He also saw the percentage rating him corrupt rise from 27 to 34 percent.
  • In OH-15, there was a 9 point increase in Republican Deborah Pryce’s negative ratings (22 to 31 percent).
  • In VA-2, we saw an increase in Republican Thelma Drake’s negative ratings from 25 to 37 percent negative and an increase in the percentage describing her as corrupt from 17 to 26 percent.
12
The reviews
  • Boehner: “They certainly have had some impact.” (Wall Street Journal, 8/1/06)
  • “MoveOn.org’s intervention in several races seems to be paying off.” (Hotline, 7/25/06)
  • "The player who changed the dynamics of the race is MoveOn." (Hartford Advocate, 5/4/06)
13
Incumbents responded
  • Nancy Johnson spent over $125,000 to respond.
  • Chocola aired his own “red-handed” ads.
  • Thelma Drake, Pryce also responded (Pryce with the infamous “Deboarah” ad)
14
Battlefield broader
  • “The competitive rankings of three of the districts on Greenberg Quinlan Rosner’s ranking system (a compilation of Hotline, Cook, Sabato, and Rothenberg ratings) increased significantly.”
  • Washington Post:  “When some of the country’s top political handicappers drew up their charts of vulnerable house members at the beginning of this year, Representative Thelma Drake (R-VA.) was not among them. Now she is.”
15
Conclusions: What worked
  • Expose the relationship between Reps’ collusion with special interests and how they vote.
  • Use bold visual imagery to illustrate a critique you believe.
  • Test to learn what works before spending lots of money.
  • Pick districts where there’s room to make a difference.


16
…and they had the right people behind them